For our readers that study Game Theory the title of this post is all that has to be said. Speaking only from this discipline, Apple has already lost in any theater of war it opens in the service of maintaining an iPhone-only world. While it is not impossible to arrive at a future without Android, it is more possible to arrive at a future with market equilibrium. This is both true and paradoxical.

Well the numbers are pretty plain. Companies like Acer, Motorola, HTC, Samsung, are all leveraging Linux, Android and Ubuntu to reduce overhead and deliver on user expectations. This is hitting Microsoft right where they care the most. A 14% decline in OEM sales.

In 2004 I took a position as the US implementation and configuration manager for a European mobile project on the PocketPC platform. The PocketPC platform was difficult and just plain goofy in places. I had been a bit spoiled by Palm in the 2000-2003 era. So I expected more than Visual Basic and MSSQL Server. In any case, during that project PocketPC magically became WindowsMobile.

There were mostly small changes, and the OS was largely the same, but felt better to use. The reason I mention this now, is that back then, there was a sense of momentum around WindowsMobile. Not only had Microsoft begun to vastly renovate it's flagging WindowsCE/PocketPC platform, but HP had just merged with Compaq and the iPaq was getting the facelift of a lifetime. There were new devices and in each consecutive generation, new features to explore. It was also the same time that SD Cards began to emerge as the standard medium for mobile digital devices. Data began moving easily between Cameras, PDAs and MP3 Players for the first time. There was opportunity and a sense of real development.

Skip ahead 5 years and that feeling is still here, but the new devices, the new apps, the new features and "wow moments" are coming from what 5 years ago was an unfathomable place: